Irish Unification Referendum Should Not Become 'Another Brexit', Experts Caution

A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate

The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.

"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Debates range over identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."

Call for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."